Keelway
Risk taxonomy

Carrier red flags: the 21 risk signals we check

This is the whole rule set. Not a summary of it, not a marketing version of it — the actual list CarrierVet runs against FMCSA data every time you vet a carrier. 5 of the rules are critical: any one of them, on its own, forces a High risk level. The other 16 are weighted, and two points is all it takes to move a carrier off Low.

We publish it because a risk score you cannot audit is a risk score you should not trust. If the panel calls a carrier High, you are entitled to know exactly which line of the FMCSA record did it.

Last updated

How the risk level is computed

There is no neural net here and no black-box score out of 100. It is a rule engine, and it runs in one pass:

  1. Any single critical finding forces High. The weighted rules are still listed on the profile, but they no longer change the level. One critical is enough.
  2. Otherwise, the weighted findings are added up. Most weighted rules carry 2 points; the softer ones carry 1.
  3. A total of 2 or more is Medium. Below 2 is Low. So one 2-point finding lands a carrier at Medium by itself, and so do two 1-point findings.

That is the entire model. It means a Medium can be triggered by a single shared phone number, and it means a carrier with two mild findings and a carrier with one serious finding land in the same bucket. Read the factors, not just the badge.

Critical — forces High

Any one of these stops the booking

These are not judgment calls. Each one means the carrier cannot legally or safely haul your freight today. There is no weighing, no adding up and no combination of good news that offsets them.

C01

Not allowed to operate per FMCSA

FMCSA has this entity flagged as not authorized to operate. There is no version of this that ends well.

C02

No active operating authority

Neither common nor contract authority is active. If they move your freight, you are the one holding the liability.

C03

Active out-of-service order

FMCSA has ordered the carrier off the road. The panel shows the date the order took effect.

C04

Unsatisfactory safety rating

The worst rating FMCSA issues. Most shipper contracts and most cargo policies exclude it outright.

C05

Insurance on file below the amount required

The filed BIPD coverage is less than what this carrier's authority requires. A claim could land on you.

A High carrier is not necessarily a criminal. Authority lapses for unpaid fees. Insurance filings lag. The point of the flag is that you stop and verify before the truck is loaded — not that you blacklist anyone.

Weighted — 2 points is Medium

The 16 weighted signals

None of these disqualifies a carrier by itself. Each one is a question you should be able to answer before you dispatch. The 2-point rules are the ones that reach Medium on their own — they map to the patterns that show up again and again in fraud and in serious safety failures.

W011 pt

Authority granted less than 6 months ago

New authority isn't disqualifying on its own — but it's the single most common trait of a fraudulent MC.

W022 pts

New authority with an unusually large fleet

Under 6 months old with 20+ power units. Legitimate fleets don't materialize at that size. This is the classic reincarnated-carrier signature.

W032 pts

Phone number shared with 3+ other carriers

One phone number behind several MCs is how a single bad actor operates a stable of shells.

W042 pts

Email address shared with 3+ other carriers

Same pattern as the phone. FMCSA records make it visible; almost nobody checks.

W051 pt

Address shared with 10+ other carriers

Sometimes a legitimate filing agent or a truck park. Sometimes a mail drop with a dozen MCs behind it.

W062 pts

Authority revoked in the last 36 months

Revoked and then reinstated. Worth understanding why before you hand over a load.

W072 pts

2+ insurance cancellations in the last 36 months

Insurers cancel for non-payment and for loss history. Neither is a good sign. Insurer swaps are excluded from this count.

W082 pts

Conditional safety rating

FMCSA found the carrier's safety management controls inadequate.

W092 pts

A BASIC score at or above the 85th percentile

Ranked against peer carriers with a comparable inspection count. Higher is worse.

W102 pts

A BASIC violation rate 2× the national average

The fallback when no percentile is available. Needs at least 5 inspections to trigger.

W112 pts

BASIC scores over the FMCSA intervention threshold

FMCSA itself considers this carrier worth intervening on.

W121 pt

Driver out-of-service rate above ~5%

The national average is roughly 5%. Above it means drivers are being pulled off the road more often than the norm.

W131 pt

Vehicle out-of-service rate above ~20%

The national average is roughly 20%. Above it points to deferred maintenance.

W141 pt

Fatal crashes in the last 24 months

Fault isn't recorded in the FMCSA data, so this is a prompt to ask — not a verdict.

W151 pt

No inspection history despite significant reported mileage

A carrier claiming six-figure mileage with zero inspections either isn't running the miles it claims, or isn't running them under this MC.

W161 pt

Also holds broker authority

Not a red flag by itself — but confirm the truck is actually theirs and the load isn't quietly being re-brokered.

On the percentiles

FMCSA stopped publishing property-carrier SMS percentiles in 2017. The percentiles CarrierVet shows are computed from FMCSA's public inspection and violation files against peer carriers with a similar inspection count. They approximate FMCSA's methodology — they are not the official score, and the panel labels them as such.

Run the rules

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Highlight an MC or DOT number in Gmail or Outlook on the web, click the badge, and the side panel comes back with the level and the exact factors behind it. Anywhere else, right-click the number instead. No account, no credit card, no seat limit.

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The main event

The chameleon carrier, and why the record still betrays it

A chameleon carrier — the industry also says reincarnated carrier — is an operator who was shut down and came back wearing a new number. FMCSA revokes the authority, or an unsatisfactory rating makes the MC unusable, or the safety history gets bad enough that no broker will touch it. So the operator files for a fresh MC. New entity name, new paperwork, no history.

The trap is that the new MC looks good. Zero crashes. No out-of-service orders. No violations. Not because the operator is safe, but because the record is three weeks old. A vetting process that only asks "are there any black marks?" will wave a chameleon straight through, every time. The absence of a bad record is not a good record.

What carries over

The reason this is catchable at all is that reincarnation is expensive to do properly, and almost nobody does it properly. A new MC is cheap. A new phone number, a new email, a new yard, a new dispatcher and a new set of trucks are not. So the operator refiles with the same details as before, and the FMCSA record — which is public — quietly links the old entity to the new one:

  • The phone number. The dispatch line does not change. Now it appears on the filing of the dead MC and the fresh one.
  • The email address. Same, and often worse — one inbox behind an entire stable of shells.
  • The address. The yard is the yard. Ten-plus MCs at one address is sometimes a filing agent and sometimes a mail drop with a dozen ghosts behind it.
  • The fleet. This is the tell that cannot be faked. A four-month-old authority does not have thirty power units. Legitimate fleets are built truck by truck over years. A brand-new MC with a large fleet is a fleet that already existed under a different number.
  • The mileage with no inspections. A carrier reporting six-figure annual miles and zero inspections is either inflating the miles or running them under someone else's authority.

Which rules catch it

No single rule on this page says "chameleon carrier" — that would be a guess, and we do not ship guesses. What the engine does instead is surface the individual facts that a chameleon cannot avoid leaving behind. These are the ones that fire:

  • New authority with an unusually large fleet2 pts
  • Phone number shared with 3+ other carriers2 pts
  • Email address shared with 3+ other carriers2 pts
  • Address shared with 10+ other carriers1 pt
  • Authority granted less than 6 months ago1 pt
  • No inspection history despite significant reported mileage1 pt

Count the points. A textbook chameleon — new authority, twenty-plus trucks, a phone shared with the carriers it used to be — is at Medium on the fleet rule alone, and well past it once the shared contact details land. What the engine cannot do is tell you which dead MC this one used to be. The revocation rule reads the authority history of the docket you looked up, and a freshly-filed docket has none; the only thread we can pull between two carriers is a shared phone, email or address. The badge goes yellow and the factor list tells you precisely why, which is the part you can act on.

What you do next is a phone call. Not to the number in the email — to the number on the FMCSA record. If the person who answers cannot explain why a four-month-old company owns thirty trucks, you have your answer. The same setup is the engine behind most double-brokering schemes, which is worth understanding separately.

Read this part

What a risk level is, and what it is not

A risk level is a prompt to ask a question. That is the whole job. It reads a public record faster than you can and it tells you where the soft spots are. It does not know the carrier, it has never spoken to the carrier, and it cannot see the things that actually decide whether you get your freight delivered.

It is not, and was never designed to be:

  • A substitute for a signed carrier packet. The contract is what makes the relationship enforceable. A green badge is not a contract.
  • A substitute for a certificate of insurance. We read what the insurer filed with FMCSA. You still want the COI, sent by the agent, naming you.
  • A substitute for a phone call to the number on the FMCSA record — not the number in the email signature. That one call defeats a large share of impersonation attempts, because the impostor does not control the real carrier's phone.

Low is not a guarantee

Low means no critical rule fired and the weighted findings did not add up to 2 points. It does not mean the record came back clean — a Low carrier can still be carrying a single 1-point flag, and the panel lists it underneath the badge. Read it. And Low certainly does not mean the carrier is honest, solvent, or going to show up. A carrier with active authority, adequate insurance and a clean inspection history can still no-show your load, and an impostor emailing you from a lookalike domain while impersonating a genuinely low-risk carrier will produce a genuinely low-risk profile. You are vetting an MC number. You are not vetting the person who typed it.

And a good carrier can be flagged

This cuts the other way too, and we would rather say so here than have you discover it on a carrier you have hauled with for six years:

  • Shared address. Filing agents and compliance services file for hundreds of carriers from one address. That is the address rule firing on an entirely honest carrier.
  • Insurance cancellations. Switching insurers produces a cancellation record. We exclude clean insurer swaps, but the FMCSA data is messy and some legitimate changes still land in the count.
  • New authority. Every carrier is new once. A twenty-year owner-operator who finally went out on his own has a six-week-old MC and a perfectly good reason for it.
  • Fatal crashes. FMCSA does not record fault. A carrier that was rear-ended carries the same entry as one that caused it.

So the level is a place to start, not a verdict to hide behind. The factor list exists precisely so you can look at the reason, decide it does not apply, and book the load anyway. A broker who understands why the badge is yellow is worth more than a broker who only reads the color.

The ceiling

Spot-checking one carrier at a time has a limit

CarrierVet is free and it will stay free, and for a lot of brokerages it is genuinely enough. But it only runs when you remember to run it. A posted load pulls dozens of carrier replies, and the one you do not check is the one that matters. Every rule on this page depends on a human deciding to highlight a number.

The paid Keelway platform vets every inbound carrier email automatically, before you read it — the replies arrive already scored and ranked, and a risky carrier is flagged in the thread rather than waiting for you to look. Fraud Shield adds the deeper identity checks on top. That is a different product with a price on it, and this page is not the place to sell it — the honest summary is that the extension is the right tool for spot checks and the platform is the right tool for volume.

Where these signals come from

Every rule on this page reads public FMCSA data. Operating authority, safety rating, crash history and the insurance filings come from the QCMobile API and the Licensing & Insurance system, queried live on each lookup and cached for 24 hours. Contact details, fleet size and reported mileage come from the FMCSA Company Census, which we refresh monthly. The BASIC percentiles are recomputed monthly from FMCSA's public inspection and violation files.

Nothing here is scraped from a private database, and none of it is crowd-sourced. If you want to check our work on a specific carrier, the panel links straight to the FMCSA record it read.

Frequently asked questions

What is a chameleon carrier?+
A chameleon carrier — also called a reincarnated carrier — is an operator whose authority was revoked or shut down, reappearing under a brand-new MC number. Same trucks, same yard, same phone. The new MC has a clean record because it has no record at all. The FMCSA filing usually carries the old contact details straight over.
What is the difference between a critical and a weighted red flag?+
A critical finding forces a High risk level on its own — there are five, and each one means the carrier cannot legally or safely take your load right now. The other sixteen are weighted. Most carry 2 points, some carry 1, and a total of 2 or more moves the carrier from Low to Medium.
Does a High risk level mean the carrier is committing fraud?+
No. It means at least one critical condition is true — no active authority, an out-of-service order, insurance below the required amount, an unsatisfactory rating, or FMCSA flagging the entity as not allowed to operate. That is a reason to stop and verify, not an accusation. Most High carriers are lapsed, not criminal.
Can a legitimate carrier get flagged?+
Yes, and it happens. A filing agent's address is shared by hundreds of honest carriers. An insurer swap can look like a cancellation. A brand-new authority run by a twenty-year veteran is still a brand-new authority. The level tells you where to look — it does not tell you who the carrier is.
Are the BASIC percentiles the official FMCSA scores?+
FMCSA stopped publishing property-carrier SMS percentiles in 2017. The percentiles CarrierVet shows are computed from FMCSA's public inspection and violation files against peer carriers with a similar inspection count. They approximate FMCSA's methodology — they are not the official score, and the panel labels them as such.
How current is the data behind these signals?+
Operating authority, safety rating, crashes and insurance are queried live from FMCSA on every lookup, with a 24-hour cache. Contact details, fleet size and mileage come from the FMCSA Company Census, refreshed monthly. BASIC percentiles are recomputed monthly from FMCSA's public inspection files.
Does CarrierVet cost anything?+
No. CarrierVet is a free Chrome extension. There is no account, no credit card, no sign-in and no seat limit. Every rule on this page runs on every lookup for every user.

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